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In this post, I'm going to explain my process to calculating these probabilities (with the R script I used to calculate them), describe why this problem is so complex, and provide some tools to play around with

With Dark Patch out of the picture, Janines Secret Art is the type's best way to get Energy on the field

The Lesson Avoiding What You Want Causes Problems I chose Cloud of Faeries but I could have chosen any card with the free mechanic (for those unaware of what I'm talking about, the free mechanic was a series of spells that all untapped X basic lands where X was the converted mana cost of the spell when the spell resolved or came into play

How durable is the leatherette cover